A 10-day global weather forecast, computed in under an hour

A Chinese-developed weather model has completed the calculations for a 10-day global forecast at five-kilometre resolution in under an hour. The result meets widely used international timing standards for operational forecasting, an important step towards making detailed simulations practical.

The China Meteorological Administration’s Earth System Numerical Prediction Center and computing company Sugon announced the achievement in Zhengzhou on 15 September. Their MCV atmospheric model ran on a Chinese-built supercomputing system and, according to the announcement, passed quality checks across multiple forecast runs.

Five-kilometre resolution means representing the global atmosphere with a grid whose points are roughly five kilometres apart. A finer grid gives a model more scope to capture complex weather processes, but also creates a much larger computing task. Researchers and engineers optimised how the model worked with the computing system to complete that task within the required time.

More detailed, timely forecasts could support flood preparedness, farming, flight scheduling and energy supply. The milestone is not yet a new public forecasting service: sustained testing in operational use is still needed. But it meets an important computing requirement for turning high-resolution weather research into information people can use.