COVID-19 vaccines delivered trillions in value, study estimates

COVID-19 vaccines generated an estimated $6.43 trillion to $64.3 trillion in health and economic benefits worldwide during their first year, according to a study published in PLOS Medicine.

Researchers analysed data from 173 countries for the period from December 2020 to December 2021, weighing vaccine investment against benefits including fewer hospital admissions, lower healthcare costs and less lost work. Their analysis drew on earlier modelling that estimated vaccination prevented 14 million to 20 million deaths in that year.

Using two different methods for valuing health and lives saved, the researchers estimated returns of $59.70 to $809 for every dollar invested. The wide range reflects those different approaches, and the totals include the value of better health, not just financial savings.

The gains were uneven. Wealthier countries benefited more, helped by earlier access and faster rollouts. Many low- and middle-income countries did not gain widespread access until late 2021, after many people had already been infected. Even so, low-income countries recorded the greatest avoided healthcare costs and productivity losses relative to their economies and populations.

The study covers only the first year and relies on previous estimates of vaccination’s effects. Within those limits, both methods reached the same broad conclusion: the benefits far outweighed the investment, while delayed access left some countries with less protection than they could have had.